NO CONFIDENCE

A CASE OF PUTTING THE CART BEFORE THE HORSE

Will the UNP’s decision to float a no faith motion against the Rajapaksa administration at this stage boomerang on the main opposition party and the SLFP Mahajana Wing?

By Dharisha Bastians
Euphoric about the pathetic performance of the government and the numbers they have been able to muster at the successive people’s rallies around the country, the main opposition United National Party and its faithful ally, the SLFP Mahajana Wing have decided to take their campaign of agitation one step further. By the end of this week, the UNP is to give the House notice of a motion of no-confidence to be brought against the Rajapaksa government, based upon the COPE findings, the controversial MiG-27 procurement deal and the decision to obtain a USD 500 million bond from private banks.

The UNP’s aim is to bring about the fall of the government before the end of this year, according to senior party men.

But a study of the political ground realities, despite what the UNP propaganda machines would like the public to think, are no where near conducive to such moves. A no-faith motion would require a simple majority in the House to be passed – numbers that the UNP cannot muster at this stage, even though some strange mathematical logic has been applied to reflect 113, or in the worst case, 95 seats to the government’s 92.

The UNP believes that when it comes to crunch time, there will be five defections from the UNP reformists group that joined the government earlier this year, and it is also counting on the support of the disgruntled Ceylon Workers’ Congress and Sri Lanka Muslim Congress to push the motion through. Both minority parties are in government almost under duress, in an attempt to fend off large scale defection in their ranks with the government enticing their MPs with promises of government perks and portfolios. However, to believe that they are willing to ditch the government at this stage, appears to be a risky calculation on the part of the UNP. It is true that the government is beset on all sides by a disgruntled populace. If it were up to the people, the pain in their stomach region alone might well swing their votes towards the opposition. Unfortunately, parliamentarians have had to do no such belt tightening and may still be willing to sit tight, with their perks and privileges intact until the tide turns altogether.

The UNP has also challenged the JVP to oppose the no-confidence motion and protect the government further, especially in light of the fact that the motion is based on corruption within the administration. The UNP knows full well that the JVP will be hard pressed to go against a no-faith motion based on issues of poor governance and corruption, since it would then be construed as being a silent supporter of the administration, saddling that party with the same problems of incumbency that plagues the Rajapaksa government today. But the JVP, as of now, claims it is undecided on the matter of the no-confidence motion.

The Rajapaksa Administration might be full of faults and it might be burdening the masses in an unprecedented fashion, but Ranil Wickremesinghe remains the JVP’s chief bogeyman. The JVP would grin and bear it with any other government, but another UNP regime is still unthinkable for the reds, given the diametrically opposite position the Grand Old Party holds when it comes to resolving the ethnic question and its blatantly capitalist outlook on economic affairs.

It might also seem logical that the SLFP Mahajana Wing (aka Mangala Samaraweera and Sripathi Sooriyaarachchi) would not be entirely pleased with the prospect of having to show their numbers in such a hurry. The SLFP (M) signed on with the UNP with the promise of winning over several more SLFPers ‘at the right time’ to weaken and finally bring about the fall of the government.

Today, while the disgruntlement within SLFP ranks is very much a public secret, none of the MPs have shown themselves willing to stick their necks out and come out publicly against the President just yet. Samaraweera and Sooriyaarachchi therefore cannot be too enthused at the prospect of having to walk the talk so suddenly. Both rebel MPs have openly stated that the time is not yet ripe for an election – a prospect that would become very real if the President were to call a snap poll in the event the no-faith motion goes through.
That brings us back to the potentially futile motion. It is quite possible that the UNP has counted its chickens too fast. Despite all its problems, political analysts believe that the government still has the upper hand because of the military victories in the recent past.

This same school of thought also believes that the moment for defections will be when the government suffers a serious military setback, extinguishing hope that has recently been growing that the war is not only winnable – but winnable quickly. In which case, the time to strike is certainly not now, hot on the heels of Toppigala and now the Mannar victories.
Furthermore, it is not only failure that the UNP has to worry about when it comes to the no-confidence motion, but also the fallout from that failure. For months now, the opposition campaign has been gathering momentum and the political tide looks like it is turning in their favour given the widespread discontent in all sections of the country.

The UNP – as it continues to take on the administration’s sins, are strengthened by the political acumen of the formidable Samaraweera-Sooriyaarachchi combination and the hope the SLFP (M) brings in terms of winning over a section of the government members. To push the no-faith motion now and lose, therefore, would be a massive setback for the opposition campaign. It will be proven, irrefutably, as being a damp squib, incapable of taking on a powerful and stable government. A government strengthened by such a victory over its opponents, may perhaps go on to entice more defections, leaving behind a further dilapidated UNP membership and two lone SLFPers to carry on the game.

Good political strategy requires playing the waiting game and making sure one acts when the time is perfectly ripe and maximum mileage can be gained. Ranil Wickremesinghe has failed miserably at this game of political chess for many years. Samaraweera on the other hand, is its master. Can he convince the UNP to wait until the iron is truly hot? And will his influence stay Wickremesinghe’s hand this time around lest the opposition campaign fizzles out with this motion that is almost certainly, doomed to failure?

Point of privilege against Rajitha at WPC

In an unprecedented move yesterday, a provincial council member raised a point of privilege at the council when he accused a member of parliament of harassment and attempting to curb his freedom of expression.

Western Provincial Councillor A.J.M. Muzammil rose yesterday to complain of harassment from Minister Rajitha Senaratne who he said was harassing him and requested the Chairman of the Council to complain to the Speaker of Parliament.

Muzammil wrote to Media Minister Anura Priyadarshana Yapa recently, charging that a question and answer programme on Rupavahini was blocking access to viewers who wanted to ask tough questions from the minister. The letter resulted in a war of words between Senaratne (who was on the programme that day) and Muzammil, resulting in the point of privilege being raised today at the Council.