The Month of Crisis!

Militarily and politically, November seems to be the month of crisis.
Militarily, the government and the LTTE are moving towards the big battle and politically, the government and the opposition are rearing for a bitter fight during the budget session.

Militarily and politically, the combatants have no other options.

President Mahinda Rajapaksa said on Thursday at Manampitiya, “The liberation of the people depends on the defeat of the LTTE. We will do it. It cannot be stopped by anybody.”

His brother, Defence Secretary Gotabhaya Rajapaksa declared that despite the Anuradhapura attack operations in Vanni would continue.
The other brother, Basil Rajapaksa while voicing a similar hard stance, cautioned the people about the LTTE unleashing “more attacks on sensitive locations in the country.”

The LTTE had repeatedly warned that it would strike back hard, extend the war to the entire country, strike at military and economic targets and its attacks would be multi-faceted.

LTTE’s Political Chief S.P. Thamilselvan told a delegation of Catholic clergy headed by Archbishop Rt. Rev. Dr. Malcolm Ranjith on September 19, “If the offensives continue, the LTTE would have to wage a struggle of its own and it would affect the whole country”

Soon after the fall of Thoppigala on July 18, he told The Daily Telegraph, London, the LTTE would reassert itself and would deal ‘crippling’ attacks at military and economic targets and they would be multi-faceted.
LTTE’s second rung leaders Planning Chief V. Balakumar, Peace Secretariat Director General Irasaiah Ilanthirayan and Propagandist Yogaratnam Yogi have told the pro-LTTE media that their target was ‘Man meedpu por’ meaning the recovery of the lost soil.

Both sides have set recovery of soil as their targets – for the government the recovery of Vanni and for the LTTE recovery of areas in the north and east under government control. The government wants to destroy the basis for Tamil Eelam and the LTTE wants to establish it.
Both sides are under pressure by their respective support base. The government has to show military victories to contain the UNP and the JVP led agitations and to divert public attention away from the soaring cost of living.

LTTE is in a worse plight. The Tamil diaspora, its main backer, is growling: What are you doing while the Tamil people are suffering? Balakumar’s explanation given to the Swiss-based magazine ‘Nilavaram’ (The Situation) that they were adopting defensive strategy to win the support of the international community had failed to silence them. Yogi’s homily delivered through Australian Tamil Broadcasting Corporation advising patience has caused them to lose patience.

Thamilselvan’s and Ilanthirayan’s assurance that they were about to go on the offensive has pacified them. With Yala and Anuradhapura attacks, the LTTE has gone on the offensive. It looks like it has carefully chosen the sites for its attacks. Both are within Sinhala areas. Yala is in President Rajapaksa’s district Hambantota. Anuradhapura is the capital of the Sinhala people for over one thousand years.

The name chosen for the Anuradhapura attack was ‘Operation Ellalan.’ Ellalan (Ellara) was the Tamil king who ruled Anuradhapura for 40 years and was defeated by the Sinhala hero King Dutthagamani in B.C. 161.

The defeat of Ellalan by Dutthagamani was eulogized in the Mahawamsa.
Both sides are trying to involve the people in the war. On Friday, President Rajapaksa called on the people to be more vigilant and report to the police and the security forces the presence of suspicious persons and any suspected activities in their locality.

The LTTE leaders are telling the people to join the resistance movement. “Give us at least one member from your family,” Sea Tiger head Soosai told a meeting last week. (The writer is a retired senior journalist.)