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That master of missed opportunities
By Dharisha Bastians
With a little more than a week to go for D-Day (or December 14,
when parliament will sit for the third reading and vote on the government’s
Budget for 2008) it would interesting to be a fly on the political
walls, with an ear to all the backroom wheeler dealing and strategising
under way. Parliament has been in session for over a month now but,
far from it being a heated debate about the Appropriation Bill,
it has been an incessant game of political musical chairs and one
party or the other calling for its own pound of flesh to support
or oppose the Budget.
Ranil Wickremesinghe is, obviously, the man to watch, as the next
week pans out. Despite the confidence of his closest acolytes, that
November 19 would result in a severe erosion of numbers for the
government, the promised defectors never came. Now, as we draw closer
to December 14, the same rash promises are being made, although
some quarters of the UNP have opted to toe a more cautious line
on victory or defeat at the final Budget vote.
All this, of course, is indication that Wickremesinghe never learns.
He constantly rehashes the same old strategies, instead of taking
stock of all that has gone before and engage in proactive politics.
He has often been called master of the waiting game and a keen political
observer who looks before he leaps. However, there is such a thing
as waiting too long and looking too hard, before taking that all
important plunge. Too many are the political opportunities that
have passed him by tragically, to the detriment of this country,
all because he did not have the will to make things go his way.
Far above all this, for a seasoned politician who has seen some
of the finest leaders the UNP has produced, at work, and yet, he
has failed miserably, to learn anything from them.
Wickremesinghe is yet to understand his strengths and weaknesses,
and learn to play them strategically, when it comes to matters of
national interest. This is a national tragedy, because such is the
bleak political landscape of this country, that Wickremesinghe is
perhaps the only leader Sri Lanka possesses with a long term vision
for the country. His greatest asset, one so necessary for a country,
is the ability to be an unemotional decision maker; one guided by
logic and not sentiment. In terms of economic and social development
for Sri Lanka, it goes without saying that the current UNP leader
is the only politician in the country who has a clear short-term,
medium-term and long-term plan for growth.
However, all of these positives are overshadowed by his grievous
failings: Wickremesinghe’s undoing has been that he has failed
to identify real talent within his party and give them due place
and prominence that would guarantee their allegiance and the growth
of the UNP. Instead, through most of his recent political career,
he has clung to those whose thinking is most like his own and trusted
them and them alone, in matters related to party and State, at the
cost of everything else – including the presidency twice in
his career. It has long been argued that the UNP leader gathers
closest to him only those who pose no threat to his leadership,
‘yes men’ who are, very often, the undoing of the best
of leaders.
Despite claims to the contrary, there still exists a crisis of leadership
within the UNP. The 17 reformists who crossed over to the government
ranks, earlier in the year, may have been the most outspoken dissenters
of the lot, but from time to time, there have been smaller erosions
in the party, particularly, from the rank and file, who are thoroughly
disgruntled by the inefficiency of the leadership.
This
has, effectively, resulted in any potential threats to the Wickremesinghe
regime, within the UNP, being eliminated, with no one left to put
up any resistance to the leader’s (or more likely his inner
circle’s) harebrained schemes. This situation is an ideal one
for Wickremesinghe’s position of strength within the UNP, but
bodes ill for the country. In addition to having to put up with
a corrupt and inefficient regime, the people of Sri Lanka cannot
even find solace in an opposition that is doing its job well.
The
Rajapaksa bandwagon goes merrily on its way, because Wickremesinghe’s
team is not putting up enough of a fight. It is a sorry story that
the government would have been sans 17 votes on November 19, had
Wickremesinghe been more accommodative towards the party reforms
his 17 defectors were angling for. By refusing to make his party
more democratic, Wickremesinghe has ensured that the Rajapaksas
could usurp democracy within parliament, when push came to shove
at a crucial vote last month. In his obstinacy to even contemplate
opening the party’s doors to these 17 rebels once more, merely
ensures that the government continues to have the numbers it needs,
while the UNP itself, has to cobble together members from the House
and still fail to make the cut. In another depressing lack of judgment,
Wickremesinghe has failed to realise that while some members among
the 17 crossed over enticed by the perks of office, others went
because they were out of options and staying in the UNP, under the
current leadership, meant political suicide.
Given Wickremesinghe’s intransigence on the matter of the reformists,
December 14 looks to be a repeat of the November 19 performance
in parliament. The only realistic problems for the government appear
to be which way the CWC and the SLMC votes will swing, since both
parties have been making significant noise about their support or
the lack thereof, on December 14.
The
CWC is, reportedly, concerned by the mass detention of suspects
in Kotahena recently and are demanding that the government releases
at least some of them, in order to be assured of their support at
the Budget vote. It is also looking likely that a few SLMC members
might go against the government at the key vote. However, if past
indications are anything to go by, if the CWC or the SLMC make things
dicey for the government on December 14, the JVP is likely to do
an about face and vote with the government, in order to ensure it
does not collapse. The JVP might see the exit of the minority parties
as a means by which to regain control of this administration and
this might be reason enough to support the Budget – and no
doubt, they will ‘explain’ their decision at a press conference
the very next day, with several logical arguments to back their
action.
Under the circumstances, while the government is likely to continue
in power, post December 14, what is likely to change is its position
on key issues, based on how the dynamics of the vote pans out. If
the CWC and the SLMC vote with the Rajapaksa government, it would
be compelled to accommodate the views of the minority communities.
But if their victory at the Budget is, finally, decided by the JVP’s
vote in support, there is no doubt that it will have to adopt a
more hardline position on the ethnic issue and other matters, to
appease their regained allies.
At the end of the day then, the vote on the Budget, which was never
about the Budget at all, is likely to give this administration a
new lease of life. This does not mean that the concerns of the people
are addressed, that their economic burdens are lessened or investment
in the country encouraged. It will only mean victory at a numbers
game that interests the people very little.
As for the opposition leader, he is likely to observe from afar.
This Budget, which the opposition ought to have opposed staunchly,
on grounds that it provided no relief to the masses, would have
been passed with minimal fuss. In other words, the government would
get away with this too, largely because of the inefficiency of the
opposition. If this trend were to continue, Ranil Wickremesinghe
will be unable to harness the peoples’ power that will surely
be building as their burdens grow bigger, and this too, would be
a case of a golden opportunity lost. At this rate, it will be the
government that does everything in its power to ensure that Wickremesinghe
remains leader of the opposition, as long as possible.
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