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Sitting on a time-bomb
Friday’s
vote might be in the bag for the Rajapaksa led government, but with
the conclusion of the long and tedious debate this week, the administration
will have no choice but to confront certain crucial issues facing
the country if it wants to make its parliamentary victory meaningful….
By
Dharisha Bastians
As far as the government is concerned, the
over-talked budget might be in the bag. Even the UNP seems to have
given up all hope of turning the tables on December 14 and finally,
all the instability, upheaval and tedious uncertainty seems to be
reaching an end. Sri Lankans collectively are no doubt heartily
sick of the budget debate and are quite keen to get on with their
lives. They are tired of the Kotte Road being closed for an endless
90 days of irrelevant budget debate and the crossover sagas are
getting very, very old.
And though Friday might be a great one as far as the government
is concerned, it would be naive for the Rajapaksa administration
to believe for one second that with the passing of the budget their
troubles would come to an end. One only needs to closely observe
the sentiments expressed by British High Commissioner Dominic Chilcott
when he delivered the Dudley Senanayake Memorial Lecture on Monday
to know that the international community, for one, is thoroughly
frustrated with the way ‘budget politics’ has played out
over the last few months.
“For a number of weeks and months, Sri Lankan politics have
been caught up in the vortex of the budget debate. The survival
of the government has been at stake. That has neither helped keep
tempers cool, nor public statements rational.
There
has been a lot of playing to the nationalist public gallery. I hope
that, once the budget is out of the way, public discourse will become
rather calmer,” Chilcott stated, echoing the sentiments of
many members of the diplomatic community.
Issues, relating to policy and otherwise have been thoroughly neglected
thanks to the time consumed by making the necessary numbers at the
successive budget votes. Rampant corruption, damning reports from
commissions of inquiry, the abysmal human rights record made worse
by the recent carpet arrest of hundreds of Tamil citizens in Colombo
and other demons shall leap out at the government once this tumultuous
time in the legislature finally draws to a close.
President Mahinda Rajapaksa will have no option make some serious
decisions in terms of the numbers in his cabinet, the economic burdens
on the people and corruption within his ranks if he wants to have
anything more than just a hand-to-mouth existence as far as his
reign is concerned, with the next vote in the House proving equally
crucial. In fact, one of this government’s biggest problems
has been its inability to consolidate its numbers with meaningful
reform and good policies and its tendency to make grievous errors
in judgment that constantly results in its power base hanging in
the balance. In President Rajapaksa’s need to keep everyone
happy, he constantly ends up annoying one party or the other, resulting
in his having to play the pacifying game – all the time.
Two years into his presidency, Rajapaksa no longer has the luxury
of being naïve in statecraft and needs to step up to the plate
unless he wants to be remembered as a Head of State whose reign
resulted in nothing but murder, mayhem and economic ruin in the
country. His honeymoon period has long been over.
The
first lesson of statecraft and one the President has been loath
to learn during his presidency, nay, his political career is that
tough decisions must sometimes be made, irrespective of who dislikes
you for it, if the leader of a country is to put meaningful policies
in place to take the state forward. Tragically, it would not be
wrong to say that in the two years of the Rajapaksa presidency,
progress has been a resounding ‘zilch’ on almost all fronts,
with the only saving grace (so far) being a dubiously and marginally
successful war effort. Apart from this, this SLFP led coalition
has been an abysmal failure of its people and its mandate and the
populace is fast losing patience.
And the people are not the only disgruntled ones either. There is
a storm brewing within the SLFPers, many of whom are thoroughly
frustrated with the manner in which the coffers and other party
matters are being run. The current simmering row is one that has
been rising to the surface for several months now, after it became
public knowledge that over 60 percent of allocations in the national
budget were for ministries and departments coming under the direct
purview of President Rajapaksa and his brother cum Senior Advisor
Basil Rajapaksa who oversees matters unofficially on his behalf.
With the remaining 40 percent of the allocations alone having to
be shared among the other 106 ministries, SLFPers have been grumbling
that they do not have the funds necessary to carry out development
projects even in their electorates and have openly voiced concern
about being unable to return to their electorates in the event of
a snap poll being called.
In fact, there have been whispers of an election or at the very
least a serious cabinet reshuffle depending on how Friday’s
vote pans out, and whether the government can hold on to its numbers
all depends on whether the SLFPers will be happy with either scenario.
As for the UNP-SLFP (M) combine, if Friday’s vote doe not go
their way, it is a collective opinion that it is high time that
both parties quit making grandiose statements and making predictions
about the date of the government’s imminent collapse. UNP Leader
Ranil Wickremesinghe has certainly already given up all hope of
a victory on Friday and is already talking about commencing street
fights in January. No doubt, the deadline for toppling the government
will be extended to a random date in February. One thing must be
said for the main opposition party – hope does spring eternal
for them, despite the hopelessness of the situation resulting from
their own ineptitude.
There
is barely anything to be salvaged from an opposition that is unable
to so much as make such an unpopular and inefficient regime falter
briefly. In the aftermath of Friday’s vote, the UNP too has
crucial decisions to make, not least of which is to decide whether
the current leadership is ever going to take the party forward in
this struggle against the Rajapaksa regime.
This
defeat at the budget is yet another defeat for Wickremesinghe and
it is high time the UNP Leader came to terms with the fact that
he just might not be the man for this job. His experience and knowledge
with regard to matters of state has to be admired, but Ranil Wickremesinghe
does not have the political will or grassroots awareness to fight
this fight. Sometimes, to do what is best for one’s country,
the right thing to do might be to bow out of the fight and let a
better man take up the challenge. Wickremesinghe’s clinging
to mantle of leader has prevented a second tier emerging this long,
postponing his exit further will only result in the utter degradation
of the country. A vibrant opposition is the people’s only hope
and the UNP has failed them time and again on this front.
While everyone is likely to be in holiday mood starting next week,
the period following December 14 is also a time for some serious
reckoning. While MPs and party leaders are likely to enjoy their
traditional vacations out of the country or out of Colombo, it is
hoped that the close tussle in parliament over these last two months
would also have prompted some serious introspection with regard
to this country’s political landscape. While the fat cats will
be living it up (some of them on our hard earned tax rupees), it
certainly will be a pretty dismal Christmas for the average citizen.
Under the circumstances, it will not be long before they can expect
some serious popular reprisals.
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