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Visit
of Indian trio and the Colombo SAARC Summit
By
D.B.S. Jeyaraj
The sudden visit to Sri Lanka last week by a high
level three-member delegation from India lasted around 36
hours. The unanticipated mission has brought in its wake a
flurry of speculative news items about its aims and objectives.
With both sides remaining tight-lipped about disclosing details
about the visit, the official communiqués have been
quite uninformative.
It has been the lot of scribes to garner bits and pieces of
what transpired from diverse sources and assemble together
a whole that would, as far as possible, shed some light on
the matter.
Indian trio
The Indian trio comprised M.K. Narayanan, the National Security
Advisor, P. Shiv Shankar Menon, the Foreign Secretary and
R. Vijay Singh, the Defence Secretary.
Narayanan led the delegation, as in terms of protocol the
National Security Advisor position is of cabinet rank. Moreover,
Narayanan has in recent times become the architect of Indian
policy towards Sri Lanka.
It is learnt that the mission itself was undertaken on the
initiative of Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh himself.
The composition of the special high-level delegation assumed
greater significance by the inclusion of Indian Defence Secretary
R. Vijay Singh. Thus, three important spheres – namely
defence, foreign policy and national security, etc. –
were interlocked on a mutually integrated mission.
The visit by itself was consultative in nature. The objective
was to ascertain the exact position of Sri Lanka towards some
issues that directly affect India. Through a frank exchange
of views with different players, New Delhi hoped to obtain
an incisive insight into the direction that Sri Lanka was
heading.
In the process of consultative discussions, India once again
emphasised through polite discourse some well-intentioned
‘advice’ on relevant issues of mutual concern.
The Indian trinity conducted a series of discussions with
several people, including President Rajapaksa, Defence Secretary
Gotabhaya Rajapaksa, the service chiefs, senior bureaucrats,
Tamil political leaders like R. Sampanthan, Arumugam Thondaman,
Douglas Devananda, D. Siddharthan and Mano Ganesan, etc.
The important ones, however, were the two meetings with President
Rajapaksa, the meeting with the Defence Secretary, the meeting
with the TNA Leader R. Sampanthan and the candid discussions
with the heads of the armed forces.
What was of immediate concern to the Indian delegation was
the upcoming South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation
(SAARC) scheduled for July 29 to August 3 in Colombo.
The event
While many issues were discussed, the most immediate and important
one was the SAARC summit. This columnist will therefore devote
himself to that issue alone in this article.
The SAARC summit is of paramount importance for Sri Lanka
as Premier Manmohan Singh is expected to hand over regional
leadership to President Mahinda Rajapaksa.
Sri Lanka would not like any repetition of SAARC-related happenings
in the early 90s of the previous century, where India pulled
out of the scheduled summit in Colombo, causing immense loss
of face to President Ranasinghe Premadasa, who had made a
name for himself as an India baiter.
An immediate cause of concern and even anxiety for India is
the security situation in Sri Lanka. With several heads of
state, including the Indian Premier, expected to attend, security
is indeed a major area of concern.
What is obvious to the outsider and even the enlightened insider
is the growing deterioration of security in Sri Lanka. While
aerial bombardment and artillery shelling go on unabated in
the battle front, violence prevails in other areas also.
The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) accuses the Deep
Penetration Unit of conducting land mine attacks in Tiger-controlled
areas. Likewise, the LTTE is charged of perpetrating many
explosions in Colombo and other Southern towns.
Disappearances, abductions, assassinations, etc., go on with
unchecked impunity in Jaffna, Vavuniya, the Eastern Province,
Colombo and suburbs, etc.
In addition, Colombo and many southern towns are becoming
‘garrison states,’ with increased security arrangements.
These include mass scale cordon and search operations in Tamil
residential areas and detention without trial.
While the powers that be are unaware or blissfully ignorant
of how exactly the world perceives this once resplendent island,
there is very little doubt externally that the country is
in the throes of a serious self-made crisis.
Complications
Against that backdrop, it is a legitimate question for Indian
officials to probe and ascertain whether the ‘Colombo
climate’ is indeed conducive for staging the SAARC Summit
and also for the Indian Premier to participate.
While claims are made of ‘Intelligence’ breakthroughs
and hundreds of arrests are made in the aftermath of LTTE
attacks, the fact remains that Tiger activity continues on
a widespread scale, making inroads into strong ‘Sinhala’
territory.
On the other hand, the Tamil minority is being victimised
both officially and unofficially without any seeming recourse
to effective justice. The progressive rulings by the Supreme
Court in some instances being honourable exceptions.
Complicating matters further are the allegations that some
of the perpetrators of anti-Tamil violence are closely aligned
to agents of the state.
Sri Lanka remains a democracy with a popular President and
mega cabinet to get on with the task of good governance. Sadly,
despite all the trappings of order and authority, nobody seems
in control and ‘functional anarchy’ seems to be
the order of the day. Concern, therefore, by Indian officials
regarding the Indian Premier’s safety is quite legitimate.
It cannot be forgotten that a lowly naval rating dared to
strike a crippling blow with his rifle on a visiting Indian
Prime Minister 21 years ago while inspecting a guard of honour.
Instead of being ostracised from decent society, that naval
rating went on to become a local hero and even embarked on
a political career.
It also cannot be forgotten that the same Indian Premier (now
out of office) was brutally assassinated on Indian soil by
a Sri Lankan Tamil organisation. In that context, Indian apprehensions
about their Prime Minister’s safety in Sri Lanka cannot
be dismissed lightly.
The situation has been compounded further by the recent anti-Indian
campaign by the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP).
There have also been provocative utterances by government
politicians about how India should conduct itself regarding
Sri Lanka.
Grave concerns
On the other hand, the LTTE, in recent times, has been openly
critical of India for aiding Colombo in the war. This is a
departure from earlier Tiger practice, where the LTTE has
refrained from plugging an overt anti-Indian line.
There is also the emerging spectre of Muslim armed groups.
Rightly or wrongly, New Delhi suspects an Islamabad connection
in this phenomenon.
In that context, the security of Manmohan Singh during the
Colombo SAARC Summit is indeed a matter of grave concern for
India.
New Delhi needs to be sure at the highest level that security
can indeed be effectively guaranteed. If necessary, New Delhi
may even break with protocol and precedent and provide its
own enhanced security for its leader.
If the assessment is that the security situation is not ‘safe,’
then the controversial step of Manmohan Singh keeping away
from the Summit cannot be ruled out.
A SAARC Summit without the Indian Prime Minister is like staging
the Ramayana without Lord Rama. Moreover, it could inflict
heavy damage on Sri Lanka’s image globally.
There is rising global pressure on Sri Lanka about its unenviable
human rights track record. Indian support has been of crucial
importance for Colombo to ward off Western pressure in this
regard. But if India itself keeps away from the SAARC Summit
in Colombo, the international fallout could be disastrous
for Sri Lanka.
Of all the SAARC leaders, only the Indian Premier is subject
to ‘unique’ pressure vis-à-vis Sri Lanka.
This is due to the domestic factor of Tamil Nadu being home
to 65 million Tamils.
Events in Sri Lanka affecting Tamils could have an impact
on Tamil Nadu. We saw this in the 80s of the 20th Century.
Thanks mainly to the irresponsible and arrogant conduct of
the LTTE, the earlier support in Tamil Nadu for the Tamil
cause is not prevalent. Though the LTTE is banned and many
Tamil Nadu Tamils hate the LTTE, there is still much concern
for the overall plight of Tamils in Sri Lanka.
This Tamil Nadu concern is very much a case of ‘neeru
pootha neruppu’ (embers amid ashes) and the placid ashes
could erupt into flames. So far New Delhi has managed to ‘contain,
manage and divert’ Tamil Nadu on this issue.
Yet, ethnic passions are a sensitive issue and some major
event can whip up people into a frenzy. The New Delhi establishment
is quite aware of this situation.
Criticism
With the sole exception of a reputed media organisation, most
Tamil Nadu media are highlighting the problems of Tamils in
Sri Lanka without touching on the LTTE much.
Several organisations and political parties who were hesitant
to talk about the Sri Lankan Tamil plight are boldly doing
so now.
Already the pro-Tiger lobby in Tamil Nadu has criticised the
Indian Government for aiding Colombo in prosecuting a “genocidal
war” against the Tamils in Sri Lanka.
In a recent development, MDMK Leader Vaiko has written to
Manmohan Singh, urging that he should not go to Colombo for
the SAARC Summit as that would amount to an endorsement of
the Rajapaksa regime’s war. There is little doubt that
this demand would gather momentum in the weeks to come.
In such a situation, it would indeed be a bold gamble for
Manmohan Singh to participate at the Colombo SAARC Summit.
The danger in this is that if there is a serious conflagration
affecting Tamils in Sri Lanka while Manmohan Singh is attending
the SAARC Summit, the political fallout in Tamil Nadu could
be very serious.
This is the 25th anniversary of the July 1983 anti-Tamil pogrom.
Escalating violence against the Tamils in recent times is
increasing Tamil insecurity. What most people do not understand
is that the Tamils in Sri Lanka are now in a beleaguered state
of mind about their safety and security.
The confidence that Tamils had during the times of Premadasa,
Kumaratunga and Wickremesinghe that July 1983 would not be
allowed to repeat itself is no longer there. This columnist,
being a Tamil, knows for a fact that such a fear prevails
among many members of the community. Sadly no meaningful steps
have been taken to dispel this fear psychosis.
In such a scenario, the outbreak of anti-Tamil violence during
the time of the SAARC Summit is the last thing India would
want to happen.
BJP stance
Adding further worry to the Congress-led government is the
recent string of political successes by the chief opposition
Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP).
In a surprising development, the BJP scored in the southern
state of Karnataka and has formed a government (albeit minority).
With Parliamentary elections looming on a national scale,
the Congress would be wary of the BJP making inroads into
the southern state of Tamil Nadu also.
If Tamil Nadu starts boiling over the Sri Lankan Tamil issue,
there could be a re-configuration of political forces in the
state. This may not necessarily be of benefit to the Congress.
It is possible if not probable that the flashpoint of tension
triggering off an anti-Congress wave in Tamil Nadu could very
well be an issue affecting Sri Lankan Tamils. It may indeed
be a stroke of ill-luck if some event related to the SAARC
Colombo Summit marks the beginning of this process.
Thus, for Manmohan Singh, there are two considerations in
ensuring relative stability at least for a specific period
in Sri Lanka before, during and after the SAARC Summit.
Firstly, there is the personal security factor and secondly,
the risk of political fallout. Administrations with myopic
mindsets focusing on the security dimension alone could respond
to this situation in two ways.
One is to provide additional input and enhance security. This,
however, may be an impossible task given the widespread scope
and scale of violence in Sri Lanka.
The second is to keep away from Colombo, citing legitimate
security concerns. Both options may, however, not be acceptable
to India as its recent style of governance has been to ‘work
around things.’
India is indeed the ‘pivotal’ and ‘pre-eminent’
power in the South Asian region and it has duties and obligations
it cannot afford to shirk or ignore.
The third alternative in creating a conducive climate for
SAARC could be one relying on diplomatic dexterity.
Feasible option
It is in this regard that the sudden visit to Sri Lanka of
the three Indian ‘wise men’ assumes greater significance
and importance.
A wise, humanitarian and statesmanlike approach towards the
issue could be that of ushering in a climate of relative peace
and violence free atmosphere before, during and after the
SAARC summit.
Given the commitment of the Rajapaksa government to wage relentless
war against LTTE “terrorism” and the ferocious determination
of the Tigers in resisting it, there is practically no hope
at this juncture of the war being called off.
What seems feasible is to bring about a gradual de-escalation
of hostilities by both sides. Again there is little chance
of such a ‘de-escalation of hostilities’ being a
formal one. It has to be a de facto and not a de jure agreement.
What is in the realm of the possible is that both sides scale
down their offensive operations on a staggered basis. If the
levels of violence are brought down gradually, the SAARC Summit
could take place in a period of lull without mishap.
While the Rajapaksa government would be reluctant to go in
for an ‘official’ temporary ceasefire or de-escalation
of hostilities, the prospect of an undeclared, unacknowledged
scaling down of violence leading to a lull could be something
it can live with.
Besides, there is the added incentive of being in the good
books of New Delhi and deriving support in withstanding Western
pressures.
More importantly, Colombo could stage a summit without any
hitch with the Indian Premier attending. It is imperative
for President Rajapaksa to don the SAARC leadership mantle
smoothly.
If the government is indeed amenable to such a course of action,
there is also the need to obtain LTTE consent to adhere to
related parameters. Again, only India is capable of prevailing
upon the LTTE to agree.
India has cracked down really hard in the recent past in more
ways than one. A relaxation by India could be a welcome respite
if not a reprieve for the LTTE.
Having banned the Tigers, New Delhi cannot deal directly with
the LTTE at this point of time. But other connections and
back channels are always available.
Firstly, there is Norway, the India-approved facilitator.
Secondly, there are Tamil Nadu politicians close to the LTTE
and acceptable to Manmohan Singh like Vaiko. Thirdly, there
the unorthodox contact personnel handled by Intelligence agencies
like a flamboyant Hindu ‘God man.’ Fourthly, there
are also the more senior members of the Tamil National Alliance
like Rajavarothayam Sambandan and others.
The meeting with Sampanthan alone in Colombo and the invitation
extended for a TNA delegation to visit New Delhi are by themselves
significant developments.
First step
If India is able to persuade the warring parties to agree
temporarily to an ‘unofficial de-escalation of hostilities,’
and if both sides implement it sincerely, a comparative lull
in violence could prevail. This, in turn, could pave the way
for the successful staging of the SAARC Summit in Colombo.
While it would be premature to speculate now, such a lull
could also be the first step on the long road to peace. There
is no doubt that the coming days would pose an immense challenge
to the diplomatic prowess of Kautilya’s land. A Sri Lankan
peace process that has India’s backing has the greatest
chance of success.
Whatever the ultimate result of the Indian trio’s visit,
one thing has emerged through the mission very clearly: India
will no longer adopt a laidback stance regarding a durable
peace in Sri Lanka. While it may not be a visible ‘hands
on’ approach, it would not be ‘hands off’ either.
This, then, is a harbinger of good news for all those yearning
for a just and durable peace in Sri Lanka.
(D.B.S. Jeyaraj can be reached on djeyaraj2005@yahoo.com)
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