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Beginning
of the End?
Black
July is an important month for the LTTE because the first
senior LTTE cadre and Prabhakaran’s close comrade Seelan
alias Charles Anthony was gunned down by the Sri Lanka Army
(SLA) in Jaffna on July 23, 1983.
To commemorate Seelan’s death, Prabhakaran had instructed
intelligence leader Pottu Amman to carry out suicide bombings
or attack military installations during July.
The LTTE was successful in the past, except during the cease-fire
periods, but in July 2008, with the war on, Prabhakaran and
his leaders failed to repeat earlier successes.
With the LTTE becoming weaker in July and the SLA gaining
on the battlefront, the 58 Division commanded by Brig. Shavindra
Silva, was able to liberate the entire Mannar District and
enter the Tiger bastion of Kilinochchi District.
The LTTE would have tried its utmost to disrupt life islandwide,
but military intelligence and the security forces were on
high alert. If there were any security lapses, the LTTE would
have been able to explode a bomb or attack a military installation
and show its capabilities.
The LTTE, which not too long ago, threatened to brutally divide
Sri Lanka, is today facing near death. The group has consistently
been losing both men and material, crippling its operational
capability. A number of Tiger cadres, including senior leaders,
were killed in the last six months in clashes with the security
forces at Janakapura on July 31, according to SLA reports.
Top LTTE Leaders and Cadres killed in battlefront
Four women cadres, including, ‘Lt. Col.’ Kumaveri
Thangeamma, LTTE’s women’s wing leader in Mullaitivu,
and three of her assistants, Kanthimani, Pushparani and Magolechchemi,
were among those killed. During another clash in the same
area, one LTTE group leader, identified as Madavani, was killed
by the security forces.
In July, the SLA was able to hand over bodies of 61 Tiger
cadres killed in battle on the Vavuniya, Mannar and WeliOya
fronts, to the LTTE, via the ICRC.
On the Vavuniya front, ‘Lt. Col.’ Pallavan, ‘Lt.
Col.’ Ambumani, Selvakannan, Sellappu, Muhi, Illambu,
Sudar and Jenathan, sectional heads within the ‘Charles
Anthony’ outfit were killed.
More critical has been the ground lost by the LTTE during
this period. The group is now confined to a much smaller area
than what was previously controlled. Only two districts in
the north - Mullaitivu and Kilinochchi - remain the sole refuge
of the Tigers from the security forces. Their supply lines
remain crippled; first, on account of the group being completely
cut off from the rest of the country and second, due to the
strict vigilance of the sea, as most of their supplies came
from overseas. Indeed, when the SLA captured one of the biggest
Sea Tiger bases – Vidattaltivu – the LTTE clearly
lost its advantage over the security forces and remain surrounded
on five sides by them.
It has been reported that cadres of the Imran Pandiyan brigade
and the Charles Anthony outfit were wearing locally made bulletproof
vests and helmets.
After the entire Mannar District was captured, the SLA’s
58 Division advanced further north towards Kilinochchi. At
the same time, the 57 Division is stationed in a strategic
position near Tunukkai and Mallavi. Already, the area south
of Mallavi has been captured and consolidated. The LTTE leadership
had reportedly sent an urgent SOS calling for reinforcements
from Jaffna. The LTTE tries its utmost to protect its assets
and the leaders in Kilinochchi, but troops have advanced into
the jungle, with another 25 to 30 km to reach Kilinochchi
town and the Iranamadu area.
Will Prabhakaran and Pottu Amman bite their cyanide capsules
in such an eventualit, like Hitler?
Reason for the debacle
India and the International Community
There are several reasons for the LTTE’s present state.
Firstly, Sri Lanka is not alone in fighting terrorist forces
this time. It has active support from its neighbours India
and the Maldives, besides countries such as the US and Canada.
The main reason for Western nations and Asian countries giving
their support to suppress the LTTE is because in all these
countries their intelligence organisations have submitted
reports to say the LTTE is a global threat. Terrorist organisations
and the LTTE have secret cells and their operatives live in
around 15 countries, where they have obtained citizenship.
Therefore, intelligence operatives of those countries keep
an eye on likely LTTE cadres and other terror group members.
It is clear that the Indian Navy and Coastguard are giving
timely and effective assistance, while foreign intelligence
agencies are cooperating with the Sri Lankan Intelligence
community.
No less significant has been the contribution of the Tamil
Nadu Police’s ‘Q’ Intelligence Branch, which
did a commendable job of reining in the rebel activists and
sympathisers in Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
On July 22, the ‘Q’ Branch of the Tamil Nadu Police
neutralised a major LTTE procurement network, seizing five
imported Yamaha outboard motors with a capacity of 40-hp each.
In connection with the seizures, the Police team arrested
Kumargurubaran, a resident of Chennai and Ramesh hailing from
Kattumanadi, at a bus stop near Manalmelkudi. The motors were
to be transported to Sri Lanka in a boat kept ready by Ramesh,
for the use of the LTTE.
“The gang had transported the motors from Chennai to
Pudukkottai and was planning to take them by sea to Sri Lanka.
We are yet to ascertain under whose name the import consignment
had been booked and who collected it from the Chennai Port.
There are more persons involved in the procurement of the
motors and investigations are on to find them,” a senior
Police official told Times of India.
He added, “Smuggling for the LTTE has been going on in
Tamil Nadu. But, of late, we have been detecting more cases.
However, the LTTE is now more dependent on the supply from
India, as it is suffering huge losses from the war. They procure
these things from all over India and smuggle them via villages
along the east coast. The smuggling is more from Tamil Nadu,
because of its close proximity. Apart from the procurements
for the LTTE, there is commercial smuggling too, between Sri
Lanka and India. It is mainly to make a profit using the wide
differences in the pricing of some items in both countries.
Smuggling of beedi bundles is mostly for commercial purposes.”
At a media conference, US Assistant Secretary of State, South
& Central Asian Affairs, Richard A. Boucher, made this
comment,
“We look at Sri Lanka and we see friends. We see ourselves
as the friends of Sri Lanka and friends of the people of Sri
Lanka. We try to ensure that we make a positive contribution
here. We stand with the people of Sri Lanka as they try to
fight terrorism. We understand that people need to be able
to go about their lives safely, free from fear of bombings
on buses or [in] shopping malls or attacks in the streets.
We have tried to help the government of Sri Lanka to interdict
supplies that might be coming illegally to terrorist groups,
with the radar systems we are working on and the efforts that
we have made in the United States with the arrests and prosecutions
against the illegal supply of weapons to the Tamil Tigers
and with the designation of the Tamil Rehabilitation Organisation
as a conduit for terrorist supplies. There are actions that
we have taken overseas, actions that we have taken to help
the government fight terrorism and we will continue those.”
The LTTE’s capabilities to retain its hold over the areas
it traditionally claimed to be its own, has suffered, in part,
from the hostile attitude of the countries which once supported
its formation, by providing training facilities to its cadres
and in part, from the leadership crisis within the group.
As most of the LTTE’s senior leadership has either been
killed or is suffering from age-related problems, it faces
an acute shortage of well-trained and experienced staff. Official
estimates put the figure at five to six experienced commanders.
The LTTE forcibly recruit civilians and children to be deployed
in bunkers. It is widely believed that the LTTE still has
an unknown number of hardcore fighters reserved for its ‘final
battle.’ Some observers say that a large number of these
cadres are underage and are novices.
It was reported that Mannar leader Lakshman’s convoy
was hit by artillery fire but his fate is unknown. Thileepan
succeeded the late Balraj. Shortage of men and commanders
made the LTTE leadership allocate Jaffna leader Thileepan
to command the battle in the southern sectors. But Thileepan
too failed to retain territory or regain lost ground.
An advance group of soldiers of the 59 Division, commanded
by Brig. Nandana Udawatte, detect a small LTTE base and inform
the rest of the troops. The soldiers advance to the locality
and engage the enemy with the support of artillery and mortars.
The LTTE retaliates with mortars and artillery. The battle
lasts four days, and at the end of the fourth day, the LTTE
cadres vacate the mini-base. One officer said that the base
was well-constructed with living quarters for the cadres.
With troops advancing from north of Mannar and south of Kilinochchi
the LTTE leaders are confined to the Mullaitivu jungles.
When the IPKF was in pursuit of the LTTE, its leaders were
confined to the Mullaitivu jungle.
In the near future, where will Prabhakaran and his leaders
confine themselves to?
Shortage of arms, ammunition and cadres are adding to the
LTTE’s growing difficulties.
By all accounts, the group is today fighting a battle for
survival. The mounting losses have forced the group to retreat
on several fronts; it is now targeting the South to ease the
pressure from the security forces in the North. It has turned
to the time-tested method of guerrilla warfare and its future
strategy would be on similar lines. It must, however, be said
that a complete decimation of the group, despite the current
setbacks, would remain a remote possibility.
Meanwhile, Tiger sympathisers and activists in Tamil Nadu
and the US are reportedly canvassing the Indian Central Government
and the US Government respectively, to get the war stopped.
Will the SL Government succumb to pressure in such an event?
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