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The
mood change in Tamil Nadu
Sri Lankan political analysts should take note of the mood
change taking place in Tamil Nadu. The results of a survey
published last week by Tamil Nadu’s prestigious weekly
magazine Ananda Vikatan and the expose printed by Kumutham
Reporter, an equally influential investigative weekly should
be taken as indicators.
The Ananda Vikatan survey shows that Tamil Nadu is becoming
more sympathetic towards the Sri Lankan Tamils, particularly
the LTTE. It also shows that the persistent campaigns conducted
by hitherto considered marginal politicians - Nedumaran, Vaiko,
Ramdoss and Thirumavalavan - had been successful. About half
the respondents surveyed by Ananda Vikatan - 49.36 percent
- have said their stand was correct. Only 13.61 percent have
categorised their stand as dangerous. The balance 37.2 percent
have said the pro-LTTE group was conducting its propaganda
with their own agenda.
The success of their campaign is reflected by the position
taken by the people, specially on the questions of the role
India should play in the Sri Lankan crisis, the marked shift
on their stand about the LTTE and its goal of Tamil Eelam
and particularly about their stand on the continuance of the
Indian ban on the LTTE, are significant.
The survey shows that a vast majority of the people
of that state, want India to get involved in the Sri Lankan
crisis and find a solution. It shows that 87.42 percent of
the people in Tamil Nadu support Indian intervention while
only 12.59 percent say India should keep away.
Of those who support Indian intervention, 24.81 percent want
India to intervene only if the situation gets out of control,
while the rest - 62.59 percent wants India to act immediately.
What is the solution they want India to work out? The survey
showed over half the people - 55.4 percent - support the formation
of Tamil Eelam. Of the balance half - 44.6 percent –
majority - 34.83 percent - want India to get self-government
for the Sri Lankan Tamils. Only one tenth of the people -
9.91 percent - are firmly opposed to Tamil Eelam.
The support of over half of the people for the establishment
of Tamil Eelam is not surprising since a similar percentage
- 54.25 percent - have expressed support for the LTTE and
those firmly expressed opposition to the LTTE was about a
sixth - 17.4 percent - of the population. The rest, which
form a quarter of the population, - 28.34 percent - have told
the survey that they supported the LTTE before the assassination
of Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi. They did not say they
will continue their present position.
Now, the most important factor, the continuance of the Indian
ban?. About half the people - 47.65 percent - want the ban
removed while a quarter - 27.43 percent - want the ban to
stay and another quarter - 24.91 percent - had adopted a position
of wait and see.
The assassination of Rajiv Gandhi, continues to be a factor
weighing against the LTTE leader Velupillai Prabhakaran. About
half the people - 43.02 percent - want him arrested, while
a similar number- 40.07 want him pardoned. The balance
one sixth of the people - 16.90 percent - maintained that
Prabhakaran did not commit the crime. Taken together, the
groups that want Prabhakaran pardoned and that he did not
commit the crime, form the majority.
On Katchchativu, a vast majority want India to take action,
65.76 percent supporting the position that India should take
over that island, while 27.96 percent want India to at least
restore the fishing rights Tamil Nadu fishermen once enjoyed.
With the Indian parliamentary election scheduled for next
year, the importance of the 40 seats of Tamil Nadu and Pondicheri
cannot be ignored. The Congress Party which may lose in the
other South Indian states of Karnataka, Andhra and Kerala,
cannot permit Karunanidhi to lose. And Karunanidhi cannot
afford to permit Jayalalitha to reap the benefits of the mood
change that has occurred and which would become more pronounced
with the escalation of the war in the Vanni.
Jayalalitha has already launched her battle. She has filed
a motion in the Supreme Court seeking its direction to the
Central government to take back Katchchativu, ceded to Sri
Lanka under the Sirimavo – Indira Agreement. Jayalalitha’s
lawyers are basing their case on an earlier Supreme Court
ruling that the Indian government cannot cede territory without
obtaining the endorsement of Parliament through a constitutional
amendment. That judgment was delivered in the Berubary case,
where exchange of enclaves in Kutch with Pakistan was challenged.
And Karunanidhi also has problems with his earlier partners,
the Indian Communist Party and the Marxist Communist Party
which had withdrawn their support to Prime Minister Manmohan
Singh’s government and the Congress Party over the Indo-America
nuclear energy agreement. They have announced that their opposition
to the Congress would have impact on Tamil Nadu also, which
means that they would withdraw their support to the Karunanidhi
government.
In these circumstances, Karunanidhi would not allow the opposition
to reap the benefits of the growing mood change in Tamil Nadu.
Communists have already joined the bandwagon of the pro-LTTE
group. The publication of the survey result by Ananda Vikatan
had emboldened the other Tamil magazines. One of its competitors,
Kumutham Reporter had published an interview with Thambiyanna,
whose arrest, the intelligence section of the Tamil Nadu police,
known as the Q Branch, portrayed as a major breakthrough in
smashing the LTTE’s weapon smuggling ring. Kumutham Reporter
says that the arrested person was one Daniel, who earlier
served in the LTTE’s anti-narcotics division and had
nothing to do with weapons smuggling. After the fighting spread
to Mannar, he lost his job and went to Tamil Nadu in search
of a job. After finding a job, he went to Velankanni Church
and shaved his head to fulfill his vow. He was arrested on
July 21, while waiting for a bus and produced before the magistrate
a week later and remanded.
The magazine had also obtained comments from Daniels’s
lawyer S. Manoharan, who said, “Tamil Nadu police who
arrest Sri Lankan Tamils make them the heads of some branch
of the LTTE. That was to get for them some propaganda
mileage, he said.
The media will now compete to exploit the pro-LTTE readership.
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