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The
danger signal: Increased polarisation
As
usual, post-mortem examinations were held on Saturday’s
provincial council elections the last two days; the government
saying that it had received the endorsement of the people
for its policies and the opposition parties blaming the government
for violence and misuse of state resources. We have to look
beyond.
Then, we notice the danger signals: increased polarisation
of the Sinhalese and the Tamils, and the marginalisation of
the upcountry Tamils and Muslims, as factors in the process
of political decision making.
Latest reports from the Wanni war front indicate that the
war is about to intensify and the fighting is going to be
intense with, possibly, heavy causalities. Army General Sarath
Fonseka visited Vavuniya on Saturday to encourage the forces,
who are poised for multi-pronged attack on Kilinochchi and
Mullaitivu, the two main cities under LTTE control.
Reports say that the army commander has not underestimated
the task. He has told the ground commanders that their task
would be difficult and asked them to keep the morale of the
forces high. With the series of victories achieved in the
past two weeks, the morale of the forces is very high.
In Kilinochchi, the Tigers celebrated the 205th anniversary
of Pandara Vanniyan’s capture of the British Fort in
Wanni, a feat the last Tamil chieftain of Wanni accomplished
in a surprising raid. For those not acquainted with Sri Lankan
history, the following facts would be useful. The Portuguese
who landed at Galle in 1505 and went to Kotte, to befriend
the King there, got control of the Kotte Kingdom through political
manipulations. They captured the Jaffna Kingdom by defeating
Sangili in battle in 1619.
The Portuguese failed to capture two areas: the Kandyan Kingdom
and Wanni which comprised most of the present Kilinochchi
and Mullaitivu districts. The Dutch, too, failed in their
attempts to subjugate Kandy and Wanni. The British, who wanted
to bring the entire country under their control, started with
Wanni. They captured it by defeating Pandara Vanniyan in 1803.
Before the final battle, Pandara Vanniyan destroyed the British
Fort on August 25, 1803.
Fearing an aerial attack, none of the important Tiger leaders
attended the function, but they issued messages. They made
use of Pandara Vanniyan’s feat to whip up the morale
of their cadres and people.
The army and the LTTE are poised for the big battle. Saturday’s
provincial council election results have, as President Mahinda
Rajapaksa and Prime Minister Ratnasiri Wickremanayake claimed,
reflected the desire of the Sinhala people for the crushing
of the LTTE. The intensification of the war would naturally
upset the Tamils. They are worried that the chances of a negotiated
settlement will recede, the government’s priority being
the ‘finishing off of the LTTE.’
The All Party Representatives Committee (APRC), which is expected
to work out a formula for peace talks, would keep on delaying
in the hope that the war will be finished. The scene is set
for such a delay by the Jathika Hela Urmaya which had withdrawn
from its deliberations. Poor Minister Tissa Vitharana will
have no other option but to issue a statement to keep the
hopes of those wishing for a negotiated settlement alive.
The Tamil National Alliance, in a statement on the election
results, has warned that the Sinhala voters, who were deluded
by the mirage of a quick end to the war, will be disillusioned.
The statement adds that the war will drag on for a long period.
It adds that victory in the war would not lead to a final
solution.
Let me now point out the second consequence, the marginalisation
of the minority communities, the Upcountry Tamils and the
Muslims living in the Sinhala - majority areas, as politically
decision making forces. Before that, a word about the JVP.
It has been reduced to a marginal force. Its internal conflict
has had its effect. Anyhow, its social following will get
it not more than 10 percent of the votes in any district.
The Upcountry Tamils have a sizable population in the Ratnapura
district. In the 2004 election, its main organisation, the
Ceylon Workers Congress, managed to return one member to the
Sabaragamauwa Provincial Council. On Saturday, it failed to
get even that. In the 2004 election, the CWC obtained a total
of 10,720 votes in Sabaragamuwa: 4,295 votes in the Kegalle
district and 6,425 votes in the Ratnapura district. On Saturday,
it obtained 10,163 votes; 5,028 votes in Kegalle and 5,135
votes in Ratnapura district. The second largest party, Upcountry
Peoples Front which polled 1,806 votes in the Ratnapura district
collected only 1,415 votes.
In the Ratnapura district, the CWC polled only 1.09 percent
of the total valid votes and the Upcountry People’s Party
0.30 percent. Their spokesmen had said that their supporters
were turned away because they did not have national identity
cards. Why didn’t these parties get their supporters
their national identity cards? The young generation which
had begun to question their leaders is saying that they were
interested only about posts and perks. They added that the
age of issuing statements is gone.
The Muslims too have been marginalised. Three Muslims have
been elected to the Sabragamuwa Provincial Council - one from
the UPFA and 2 from the UNP. In the Anuradhapura district,
where there is a considerable Muslim presence, two were elected
from the UNP.
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