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Ten
future tech shocks for the next 10 years
San
Francisco - The past 30 years of InfoWorld’s existence
have seen a series of future shocks, from the ascent of the
personal computer to horrifying strains of malware to the
sizzling sex appeal of the iPhone. In honor of InfoWorld’s
30th anniversary, we’ve decided to take a playful look
ahead at the future shocks that could occur in the next 10
years (30 years seemed a little too sci-fi).
An all-points bulletin went out to InfoWorld contributors,
the replies to which we culled into 10 future shocks -- ranging
from radical changes in IT’s responsibility to “1984”-ish
scenarios where privacy is a quaint notion. No doubt you’ve
considered many of these possibilities yourself. Even more
likely, you have just as many interesting scenarios to bring
to the party, and we urge you to share them in the comments
section of this article. Dream big -- given the drama of the
past 30 years, the next 10 are anyone’s guess.
Shock No. 1: Triumph of the cloud
My main prediction is that the high cost of power and space
is going to force the IT world to look at cloud services,
with a shift to computing as a cloud resource occurring in
the next five years. So like the old mainframe model where
we didn’t care how the machine is configured, we just
dump requests to the machine and get results. In fact, cloud
computing services will resemble mainframe service bureaus.
We’re already starting to see cloud service bureaus,
such as Amazon’s EC2. Ultimately, the emergence of cloud
computing will reduce the need for computing at the enterprise
level. -- Brian Chee, senior contributing editor at InfoWorld
Shock No. 2: Cyborg chic
By 2018, geek chic will look a lot like what today we’d
call a cyborg. The human/machine interface will be ubiquitous,
with people walking around giving voice/whisper commands and
using earbud audio and an eyeglass display that superimposes
a machine-enhanced view of the world on ordinary vision. Nobody
will notice that half the population is cyborg, because we’ll
get there one small step at a time, as iPhone belt-clip holders
give way to the iBeltBuckle, iGlasses (hey, that’s catchy!),
and iEarRings. A new generation of computer viruses will take
over the new display technology. Sometimes they’re fatal,
as when the computer display shows an empty street, when in
Actual Reality (AR) the street is filled with high-speed traffic.
Other times they’re just funny, as when the display insists
on showing mustaches on every face in view. -- Bob Lewis
Shock No. 3: Everything works
You come home to do a little work on the computer, and when
you turn it on, it boots up in just a few seconds with no
issues. You open e-mail and it comes up without your having
to wait. In fact, this new OS doesn’t even have an hourglass
icon! For the rest of the night, your computer does everything
you ask it to do, without any waiting, hiccups, or errors.
The interface is intuitive and sleek. It even changes based
off what you’re currently doing so that you can access
features of the OS that you need while you’re, say, working
with e-mail or editing pics. We’ll call this OS “Windows
Sci-Fi” because we’re all dreaming if we think that’ll
ever happen. -- Sean McCown
Shock No. 4: Nothing escapes you
In 1945, Vannevar Bush conceived of a device called a Memex
that would store and retrieve all information accumulated
throughout one’s life. In the next 30 years, advances
in speech and video recognition, the power of cloud-based
computing, and real-time, continuous, wearable content capture
will bring the Memex vision to life. Just think: You’ll
be able to leave a meeting without worrying about manually
capturing your to-dos. You won’t have to remember that
interesting thing your friend mentioned over coffee. You won’t
have to write down the thought that sprung to mind when you
saw an advertisement on TV or a billboard on the way home.
Vannevar’s Memex vision will come to fruition through
your next-next-next-generation PDA. The device will continuously
capture all audio and video from your daily experiences and
upload that content to the cloud, where it will be parsed
to succinctly recognize your tasks, interesting information,
and reminders -- all searchable, of course. A summary of important
content from your day will be available through your PDA automatically.
And yes, like Google Chrome, a “p0rn mode” option
will ensure that the things you don’t want remembered
won’t be. -- Savio Rodrigues, Open Sources | Rodrigues
& Urlocker
Shock No. 5: Smartphones take center stage
I see the smartphone evolving into the preferred instrument
for constant connectivity, with voice interaction, facial
recognition, location awareness, constant video and sound
input, and multitouch screens. The keyboard won’t go
away completely, but it might be virtual: Think about typing
in the air on an image projected from your “smart glasses.”
Business desktops would evolve into docking stations for your
smartphone, with large screens and input devices, Gigabit
or better connectivity, and local resources comparable to
one of today’s big servers (technical desktops would
be similar, but with way more onboard CPU and GPU power, as
well as massive memory and storage, all connected to massive
servers and cloud resources). In this vision, the laptop nearly
goes away. -- Martin Heller, Strategic Developer
Shock No. 6: Human-free manufacturing
We’re already close to the perfect factory. (It employs
one human and one dog; the human is there to feed the dog,
and the dog is there to keep the human from touching anything.)
Right now, manufacturing in the U.S. is up, while manufacturing
employment is down. By 2018, automation will have hit enough
labor sectors that while the GDP will continue to grow, fewer
and fewer people will receive that growth in the form of wages.
This will drive either social collapse or the establishment
of a no-apologies welfare state. -- Bob Lewis, Advice Line
Shock No. 7: Perfect image recognition
I’ve actually always had this search engine dream. One
day you’ll be able to see a picture of something or take
a picture of something, and load it into a search engine and
have it scan the pic, search, and tell you what it is. So
you see a flower, stop and take a pic of it, and Google will
tell you what kind of flower it is. Or you can take a pic
of a fungus growing on your favorite plant and Google will
be able to tell you what it is by scanning the characteristics
of the pic. Cars, people, buildings -- it should work for
whatever you can photograph -- Sean McCown, Database Underground
Shock No. 8: Big Brother never sleeps
In the next 10 years, perfect governmental tracking and monitoring
of each human being will become reality. Some people will
accept LoJack implants for personal safety. Face-recognition
technology tied to video monitors at street corners will also
contribute. Also very possible: LoJack-style technology along
with a digital voice recorder embedded in drivers’ licenses
(it’s optional -- hey, driving is a privilege, not a
right). The actual trigger will be pulled when Mercedes-Benz
buys General Motors and acquires OnStar, which by then will
be private industry’s principle purveyor of “Personal
LoJack” systems. Shortly thereafter, Russia will have
acquired Mercedes, either through conquest or by buying it
with oil money, so Russia will know the exact location and
movement of most affluent Americans. So will China, which
will have manufactured the LoJack transmitters, surreptitiously
adding a backdoor feature that lets the Chinese government
track everyone as well. -- Bob Lewis, Advice Line
Shock No. 9: Unbroken connectivity
Checking to see if you’re connected to a network will
seem as old-fashioned as turning on a device to get information
in 10 years. Devices that are always receiving information
(and displaying it on low-draw screens in the cover of phones
and portable computers) will meet networks that are always
available to make your interaction with the information world
more like a flowing stream than a chain of data lakes. From
sports scores to friends’ activities, the idea of interrupting
your activities to get the news will be a thing of the past.
-- Curtis Franklin, SMB IT
Shock No. 10: Relationship enhancement
My 2018 prediction is that we use technology to remember and
fortify social connections. You’ll get together socially
with a friend, geo-locate, take pictures, Twitter, make notes
and videos, and so on, and it all gets automatically filed
away. You may forget what happened, but you can access it
all again when you search your own personal store, either
by matching keywords or simply preparing for the next social
event with same friend. There will be no difference between
“online friends” and “real friends”. This
will be life-altering. We already have the freedom of not
having to remember street directions. When we have the freedom
not to remember what happened in social interactions, it raises
a fascinating question: Will this solidify personal relationships
or change them in some other way? -- Jon Williams, New York
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