What would the New Year bring?

I wish to stick to tradition and wish you, my dear readers, a happy and prosperous New Year. Let me hasten to add that I am not that optimistic. I foresee the intensification of the Wanni war and the deterioration of the economic woes of the people.

The reasoning behind my pessimism is obvious. President Mahinda Rajapaksa and LTTE Chief Velupillai Pirapaharan have vowed to continue the fight. President Rajapaksa has declared the coming year as the year of triumph and Pirapaharan had told a Colombo English weekly in an email interview, “We will not run away leaving our people and the soil.”

The President had reiterated his determination to liberate the remaining territory in the Wanni soon from the LTTE’s hold, while Pirapaharan had said, “We have not been weakened… The battles in Kilinochchi had proved that. The future battles will demonstrate that we have not lost our strength.”

And Defence Spokesman Keheliya Rambukwella has fixed the new date for the capture of Pirapaharan as before February 7 and Wimal Weerawansa, the leader of the National Freedom Front that signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the governing UPFA last week to contest together the forthcoming provincial council election, has demanded the banning of the LTTE.

Rambukwella’s statement reflects the urgency with which the government wants Pirapaharan captured and Weerawansa’s the possible next step the government wants to take. Saturday’s Wattala blast and Monday night’s attempt to damage an electric transformer at Ratmalana may indicate LTTE’s possible reply.

The intensification and the widening of the war would naturally strain the economy further. The impact of the global economic turmoil would further strain the economy.

Let me also follow the customary practice of looking back and taking stock of the achievements and failures of the departing year. In the war front, the security forces have gained territory and continued the series of victories that started in the east last year. But during the last three months, the fighting has been stiff and losses in the number of men and material are heavy on both sides. Defence analysts predict that that trend will continue in the coming weeks.

This column has kept its readers informed about the developments in Tamil Nadu and the pressures to which Delhi is subject to. The main by-product of the intensification of the Wanni war is the upsurge of Tamil nationalism in Tamil Nadu and in the world.

O.A. Ramaiah, a senior trade unionist and Secretary General of the Red Flag Union, which is active in the hill country who attended the All India Trade Union Congress held at Travancore during November 29-December 5 captured the situation in Tamil Nadu thus: “Resurgence of Tamil emotion was evident everywhere. It was more so among the lower strata of society.” The Tamil people are generally disappointed with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and the Congress government for its failure to act on the request of the Tamil Nadu State Assembly’s resolution to pressurize President Rajapaksa to declare ceasefire. Their disappointment is turning into anger which resulted in attacks on the Congress headquarters Satyamoorthy Bhawan in Chennai. Houses of Congress leaders have been attacked last week.

Posters decrying the Congress leaders have begun to appear. One called the Congress leaders of Tamil Nadu slaves of Delhi.

The important development of the departing year is the Convention for the Acceptance of Tamil Eelam held on Friday in Chennai. The Convention adopted a resolution supporting the creation of an independent state of Tamil Eelam in the northeast of Sri Lanka. To overcome the difficulty the ban on the LTTE had placed on them, the organizers went back to the Vaddukoddai Resolution passed by the Tamil United Liberation Front (TULF) in 1976 and the final declaration of S.J.V. Chelvanayakam calling for the establishment of Tamil Eelam, a month before his death in April 1977.

Thol. Thirumavalavan, Leader of the Viduthlai Siruthaigal, who convened the Convention said, “Tamils have no state of their own. Tamil Eelam, as proposed by S.J.V. Chelvanayakam is the only possible Tamil state. We will tell the Tamil people to support it.”

Kasi Anandan, the Tamil poet from Batticaloa who was one of the promoters of the Vaddukoddai Resolution, told the Convention, “Supporting Tamil Eelam does not amount to supporting the banned LTTE. The demand for Tamil Eelam was the result of the failure of the Sinhala leaders to accommodate the aspirations of the Tamil people.”

Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M. Karunanidhi who is aware of the anger building up against the Congress Party and Manmohan Singh administration is in a dilemma. He does not want to sever his relations with the central government where his party holds several important portfolios. He also knows that he is coming under attack and is losing support.

He thus got the general council of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, which met on Saturday to pass a resolution urging the central government to push the Rajapaksa government to declare a ceasefire. Proposing the resolution Karunanidhi admitted that the central government is not acting fast. He said the delay on the part of Delhi is causing the deaths of more Tamils. He issued a ‘tearful plea’ to Delhi to realise the urgency and act fast.

Karunanidhi said, “To help the Tamils in Sri Lanka we are prepared to make any sacrifice. If we are told to sacrifice our lives we are even ready to do it. I appeal to the central government to act at least after this appeal.”

Tamil Nadu Congress Chief K.V. Thangabalu announced on Monday that Foreign Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee would visit Colombo soon. He had made similar announcements earlier.

Why this delay? Pro-LTTE lobby in Tamil Nadu has accused Delhi of waging a proxy war against the LTTE. Some say that Delhi is waiting till the security forces capture Kilinochchi and Pirapaharan considerably weakened. Still another view is also emerging. Delhi wants both sides to be weakened.