(TOI) NEW DELHI: Congress is hopeful that, barring a sudden and sharp deterioration in the humanitarian situation, the Sri Lankan offensive against the LTTE will not rock the party’s Tamil Nadu alliance too hard ahead of general elections, due to get under way in April. Congress is of the view that, the LTTE storm has been “handled” by foreign minister Pranab Mukherjee’s visit to Colombo and the subsequent window offered to civilians to reach safe zones. The LTTE’s reluctance to allow movement of civilians has not gone down well with public opinion, feels the party. Given the near-certainty that the Tigers are not likely to stage a recovery, as they have in the past, Congress’s assessment is that, DMK chief M. Karunanidhi will not break with the UPA. The shrewd politico is expected to reflect concern over the woes of civilians, but stop short of adopting any formal position seeking an Indian intervention to halt the Lankan offensive.

The PMK, which is the other UPA partner in Tamil Nadu, is not likely to indulge in excessive brinksmanship, even though it has made pro-LTTE noises, and its ties with the DMK have been strained. But the PMK, which is itself never shy of flexing its muscle, has not moved towards AIADMK. In any case, AIADMK leader J. Jayalalithaa has opposed the LTTE quite stridently, since the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi. Senior party sources said that, the attempts of leaders like MDMK chief Vaiko, VCK’s Thirumavalavan and TNM leader P. Nedumaran, to whip up pro-LTTE sentiments, were being closely monitored, but did not seem to have been met with much of a response so far. While the parties spoke of “Tamil interests”, Congress clearly regards them as LTTE proxies aiming to earn a much-needed respite for the hard-pressed militant group.

The assessment in Congress circles is that, there is little sympathy for the LTTE, though there is concern over the suffering of the civilian population in North and East Sri Lanka. After Mukherjee’s Sri Lanka visit, the LTTE’s bid for a ceasefire has not received much support, as it is seen as a thinly disguised attempt to get the Sri Lankan military off its back. Reports of local disaffection with the LTTE, in areas where it has been dominant, are also indicative that its appeal has waned. LTTE leader Prabhakaran is not the force he has been, and the war-ravaged life in Tiger-controlled areas has worn out civilians, even if they have not shed their distrust of Sinhala parties.