Sri Lanka does not want to rule out the involvement of the LTTE in the March 3 Lahore attack on its cricketers and Pakistani circles are reluctant to rule out the role of Indian external intelligence organisation Research and Analysis Wing (RAW). Whoever did it, it is clear the daring attack and swift get away by a dozen well armed youths had changed the South Asian security situation, particularly that of India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.

Security experts in Sri Lanka and India are perturbed. Cricket officials of India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh are worried about the future of the game in the region. Definitely, the future of cricket in Pakistan is uncertain. It is also doubtful whether teams from Australia, New Zealand, UK, South Africa and West Indies would play in South Asian countries.

The Lahore attack has ensured that cricket teams will have to move about under strict security. They may ask for the security afforded to visiting Heads of State.

The Lahore attack has wider implications. An Indian magazine telephoned me last Wednesday, the day after the Lahore attack, and asked for background information on the Sri Lankan ethnic strife and wanted to know whether a military victory over the LTTE would put an end to it.

I told them that even if the LTTE is defeated the root cause of the conflict- the Sinhala- Tamil conflict- remained. I told them that was a problem the country derived from its 2500- year-long history; the historical desire of two groups of people to live with security and dignity.

The Sinhalese fear that the Tamils would overpower them with the help of the Tamils of Tamil Nadu if they are accommodated as equals. Repeated invasions from Tamil Nadu and the final destruction of the Kingdom of Anuradhapura by the Chola Kings have ingrained in the Sinhala mind that fear. The Sinhalese, though the majority community, suffer from this minority complex. “You have a place to go. We have nowhere to go,” is their refrain.

The Sri Lankan Tamils who form 11 percent of the 20.9 million people is not prepared to go. They claim that they had lived in Sri Lanka since antiquity and had developed their own identity. “We are Tamils but we have a different identity and we want to preserve it,” they say.

Though they speak Tamil they have developed a distinctly different dialect. Though Hindus, they uphold Saivite traditions that highlight non- Brahminic Saiva Sithanda approaches in preference to the Braminic Vedanta traditions followed in Tamil Nadu. They prefer to call themselves Saivites and not Hindus.

Tamils wanted to live as equal partners with the Sinhalese under a unitary government but later changed their stand following state aided colonisation of the north and the east with the Sinhalese. They then demanded regional autonomy for the north and east under a federal constitution. The enactment of the Sinhala Only in 1956 led to their peaceful agitation.  When it failed they decided in 1976 at Vaddukoddai to demand a separate state.

Pirapaharan and the militants took over from there. If Pirapaharan is defeated then the situation goes back to 1976 when the Tamils demanded a separate state. Tamil leadership negotiated with the government for regional autonomy for the north and east even after opting for a separate state. India entered the scene when that effort failed. Indian efforts resulted in the signing of the Indo- Sri Lanka Accord of July 29, 1987 and the enactment of the 13th Amendment to the constitution and the Provincial Councils Act. The democratic leadership of the Tamil people rejected the 13th Amendment as unsatisfactory. The TULF leaders M. Sivasithamparam, A. Amirthalingam and R. Sampanthan, in a letter written 5to Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, on October 28, 1987 have stated:

“We feel it our duty to also express our disappointment with the proposals to solve the Tamil problem contained in the two bills – the 13th Amendment to the Constitution and the Provincil Councils Bill- presented to Parliament by the Sri Lankan Government. These proposals do not meet the aspirations of the Tamil people…”

They added, “The TULF regrets it cannot recommend the contents of these bills to the Tamil people as being satisfactory, just and durable.”

They pointed out seven areas in which the Sri Lankan Government had gone back on the agreement it reached with the TULF during the 3-year negotiation it had with it.

Rajiv Gandhi signed the Accord with President J.R. Jayewardene without consulting even the TULF merely to win fame for himself and to safeguard India’s national interest which was incorporated by the inclusion of the annexure in the accord.  Now India is talking about the 13th Amendment.

As repeatedly pointed out in this column the situation had changed in the past three months and Tamil nationalism has emerged as an important factor. Lahore has further complicated matters.

It has been complicated still further. Bharatiya Janata Party leader A.K. Advani and A,D.M.K. leader Jayalalitha have turned the Sri Lankan Tamil problem an election issue. Advani told a public meeting on Sunday that if his party comes to power in the parliamentary election in May his government will find a solution to the Tamil problem within 100 days. Jayalalitha who held a fast on Monday announced her new policy: We recognise the rights of the Tamil people of Sri Lanka for equality with their Sinhala brethren. We also recognise their struggle for an autonomous Tamil homeland within the federal set-up of Sri Lanka.

The international pressure on Sri Lanka to come up with a political solution to the ethnic problems is rising. There are some government efforts to talk to the Tamil National Alliance led by Sampanthan, the very person who rejected the 13th amendment.

And Sampanthan knows his strength. India cannot ignore Lahore. It has made a solution to the Sri Lankan Tamil problem urgent for India. If it is not solved Tamil Nadu will be unstable making it easier for any terrorist group to infiltrate into South India. Tamil Nadu has a long coast Added to that is this new factor: More and more people are going to speak about the need for a state for the Tamils. Film director Seeman and Nanjil Sampath have been arrested for advocating a separate state.