The trends that need watching

A few significant trends that may affect the future of Sri Lanka and the Indian subcontinent have surfaced during the past fortnight. Among them I consider the development in the Eastern Provincial Council as the most important. The council was about to reject the amending bill to the Local Authorities Elections Act when the government intervened and postponed the debate to May 12.
The move, the most significant factor, was initiated by the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress and the Tamil Makkal Viduthalai Puligal (TMVK) joined thereafter. The Batticaloa Municipal Council orchestrated the Tamil opposition on Thursday by adopting a motion opposing the bill and its Mayor Sivageetha Prabaharan told the media: “The legislation will harm the Tamils.”
In the heated debate in the Eastern Provincial Council on Friday Chief Minister Sivanesathurai Chandrakanthan announced that he wanted changes to the amending legislation. The Tamil and Muslim objections were four-fold:
 The provision to fill 70% of the seats of each local authority with members elected on the territorial ward system and the balance 30% on the proportional basis would reduce minority representation.
 The provision to raise the cut off limit from 5% to 12.5% will affect the minority communities.
 The provision that gives the power to the Minister of Local Government to determine the area of the wards and the local bodies may be used against the interests of the minority communities.
 The amending legislation will remove an important power concerning local government given to the provincial council under the 13th Amendment and hand it over to the central government.
The haste the government showed in passing the legislation made the Tamils and the Muslims suspicious. The feeling that the extremist components in the government are trying to consolidate the military gains in the political and administrative spheres is making the silent majority of the Tamils and Muslims extremely sensitive. Their sensitivity is heightened by the reports of Sinhala colonisation in the Northern and Eastern Provinces and the proposal to declare Puthukudiyiruppu a Buddhist site.
Tamils are also getting increasingly perturbed over Delhi’s Sri Lankan Tamil politics and designs.  The eight Tamil National Alliance (TNA) members who met last week in Colombo to consider the Indian Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon’s invitation for a meeting decided to reject it. Sri Kantha summed up: Menon’s concern was to help the DMK-Congress alliance by showing that the central government was helping the Sri Lankan Tamils. Mavai Senathirajah was not happy with that decision. He flew to Chennai the next day and went with the group leader R. Sampanthan, Suresh Premachandran and Selvam Adaikalanathan to Delhi for the meeting. The only result the meeting produced was a statement by Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee calling Colombo to extend the two day New Year pause in the military operations and Karunanidhi applauding it saying that India was taking action.
The decision of the Sampanthan group to attend the meeting was fiercely criticised by the Tamils who are blaming Delhi of playing a double game. The growing distrust of Tamils in Delhi is emerging as an important factor.
The above trends should be viewed in the background of the developments in the all India scene and Tamil Nadu.  The 2004 parliamentary election made regional parties important players in determining the composition of the central government. The Congress won 145 seats with 26.7% votes in the 542-member parliament while its main opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won 138 seats with 22.2% votes.
The Marxixt Comminist Party won 43 seats (5.7% votes) and the Communist Party of India collected 10 seats (1.4% votes). The rest of the seats went to regional parties. The Congress formed the government with the support of the regional parties of which DMK which had 16 seats, Dr. Ramadoss’s PMK (six seats) and Vaiko’s MDMK  (four seats) formed an important component. The two communist parties with the combined strength of 53 seats supported the government from outside.
The regional parties are expected to emerge stronger in the ongoing election and the communist parties are predicted to maintain their strong presence. With the experience of the Manmohan Singh Government the communists have vowed not to give a free hand to the new government and Manmohan Singh has indicated readiness to negotiate with the communists if need arises.
Tamil Nadu’s experience in the Sri Lankan Tamil affair has taught the regional parties a bitter lesson and some of them have indicated that suitable arrangements would be devised to compel any future government to respect regional interests in its national and foreign policies.
Added to the possible weakening of Delhi’s power and freedom of action is the qualitative change taking place in Tamil Nadu. Note should be taken of Jayalalithaa’s ADMK election manifesto which commits the party to support devolution of power to the Tamil dominated provinces of Sri Lanka and the alternative it had proposed in case such an attempt fails.
The alternative says: “If these moves fail, the ADMK will press for a separate State of Eelam to ensure that the Tamils in this island live a life of dignity.’
The significance of this election promise is that it had placed Eelam as an alternative solution to the Sri Lankan Tamil problem and that the two communist parties have supported it.
Karunanithi is writhing under that pressure. He tried to show that he was closer to Pirapaharan than Jayalalithaa and got into trouble with Congress. He told the NDTV on Sunday when asked whether he considered Pirapaharan as a terrorist, “No. I don’t” and added with a smile, “Pirapaharan is my hood friend and I am not a terrorist.”
Asked about the LTTE’s objectives he said, “The LTTE’s goals are legitimate and genuine, to bring about Tamil Eelam, but terrorism crept into the outfit.”
When Congress protested he tried on Monday to wriggle out saying that the NDTV had withheld a part of the interview. NDTV showed the rest of the interview on Monday which showed him dodging the question about the release of Nalini jailed for life for the murder of Rajiv Gandhi.
The Tamil Diaspora which has stepped up its agitation in the counties where they live are backing up their stir with the slogan: Ensure our rights.