Most Millennium Development Goal targets on track
Estate sector needs ‘very special’ attention: Report
By Azhar Razak
Sri Lanka is on track of meeting ‘most’ of the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) targets by the year 2015 although lack of certain specific data from mainly the war-ravaged Northern region is a concern as it could slightly alter the overall national findings to date, a top official involved in the preparation of the second Country Report on MDGs said.
The new report, which provides information on the progress of the MDG indicators based on data from 1990 to 2006/2007, was prepared by the Institute of Policy Studies in collaboration with the National Council for Economic Development (NCED) and the UN Development Programme (UNDP) and released at a function in Colombo.
“Overall, Sri Lanka has achieved considerable success with respect to a range of social indicators that comprise the MDGs and is on track to achieving the MDG targets for most of the remaining social indicators,” IPS executive director Dr Saman Kelegama told the launching ceremony.
He, however, said that although many indicators show encouraging trends at national level, still there are regional disparities which need the attention of policy makers and planners.
“Inadequate infrastructure and weakness of service delivery systems are the main factors behind these disparities,” he pointed out explaining that the estate sector needed ‘very special attention’ since most of the goals set out in the MDGs are presently ‘off track’ in the region.
In addition, Dr Kelegama said the report reached its conclusions based on ‘available data’ which sometimes excluded the island’s Northern Province, as information were not available for the region.
For example, information on nutritional status of children (relevant for ascertaining levels of poverty), share of women in wage employment in the non-agricultural sector (relevant for promoting gender equality and empowering women), measles immunisation coverage (relevant to the goal of reducing child mortality) etc., were not available for the Northern province.
“I think lack of data from the Northern Province will, however, have a negligible impact to the overall findings in the report because the population in the area is not that substantial. However, we will get a clearer picture when the next progress report is released by around 2013 at which time we would have completed an island-wide population count due to take place next year and more data will be available,” Kelegama said.
However, according to him the recent report will help Sri Lanka and its development partners take stock and review progress during the 2000-07 period so as to identify areas where additional effort is needed to implement the Mahinda Chintana, the government’s ten-year development framework and meet the remaining MDG targets by 2015.
“At the halfway stage of the Millennium Declaration, Sri Lanka is at an encouraging stage where it is looking to achieve all the MDG targets by 2015.”
“The second MDG Country Report clearly shows that the country’s next attempt should be to move from the national-level to MDG localisation at provincial and district levels, giving special attention to geographically-isolated and deprived regions,” Kelegama added.
Here is the summary of the findings extracted from the report
MDG Goal #1 - Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
= Poverty in Sri Lanka declined from 26 percent in 1990/91 to 15 percent in 2006/07 and the country is on course to attain the MDG target of halving poverty by 2015, though there are considerable regional disparities across districts and sectors. Urban and rural poverty have declined significantly, but poverty in the estates has risen and is now more than twice the national average. Poverty has declined in all districts except in Nuwara Eliya, where it is at the highest at 33.8 percent while Moneragala’s Poverty Head Count Index (HCI) is at 33.2 percent both being well more than even double the national average. Ratnapura, Badulla and Kegalle also lag behind with HCI above 24 percent.
= The poor are getting less poor on average as indicated by the declining Poverty Gap Index, yet the rising Gini coefficient of per capita expenditure and the declining share of the poorest quintile in national consumption point towards an overall increase in inequality during 1990/91-2006/07. Thus, both vertical and horizontal inequality is of concern.
= The indicator on the proportion of children underweight is on track in all three sectors (Urban, Rural and Estate), and there is a marked improvement even in the estate sector.
= The proportion of people consuming less than the minimum level of dietary energy has remained largely unchanged since 1990/91.
= The overall unemployment rate has declined from 15.9 percent in 1990 to 5.2 percent in 2008.
Recommendations
Sri Lanka could do better in achieving the targets under Goal 1, if both social and economic infrastructure facilities improved further in the less developed regions; suitable strategies are developed to adequately spread the growth outside the Western Province so as to reduce regional disparities; targeting in welfare programmes is improved further; and suitable strategies are developed to reduce inequality. Continued poverty reduction in Sri Lanka also needs a strong focus on sustainable agriculture, rural employment and income generation, as well as promotion of alternative livelihoods and development of rural infrastructure.
MDG Goal #2 - Achieve universal primary education
= Sri Lanka has almost achieved the universal primary education target with net enrolment rate reaching 97.5 percent in 2006 for both males and females, and at this rate is likely to achieve the MDG target well before 2015. The target is to ensure that by 2015, children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a full primary education.
= The proportion of pupils starting Grade one who reach Grade five has increased to almost 100 percent in 2006/ 07. This achievement is universal, including in the estate sector and the Eastern province, which is remarkable.
= Literacy level of 15-24 year-olds in all regions has also increased during 2003-2006/07 and has crossed 95 percent across all sectors and for both males and females, and making further progress towards 100 percent is likely to be slow.
Recommendations
As Sri Lanka has done well in providing universal access to basic education, now the focus should be on improving the quality of education and improving education outcomes, particularly in the remote areas and in the districts in the Northern and Eastern provinces which had been affected for more than 20 years due to terrorist activities.
MDG Goal #3 - Promote gender equality and empower women
= Sri Lanka has almost reached gender parity in primary education with the ‘ratio of girls to boys in primary education’ reaching 99 percent in 2006. In secondary and tertiary education, the proportion of girls to boys exceeds 100 percent.
= There has been only a marginal increase in the share of women in wage employment in the non-agricultural sector from 30.8 percent in 1993 to 32.2 percent in 2006. The rate of unemployment for women is twice the rate for men and for educated women the rate is around three times the rate for men.
= The picture is different, however, with women’s political representation. The proportion of women members in the National Parliament has increased from 3 percent in 1947 to only 5.8 percent at present. As the representation of women in the state legislature is very low, there is a need to encourage more women representation in the political system in Sri Lanka.
Recommendations
Strategies need to be developed to increase employment opportunities for women with secondary and higher levels of education in all districts. Better working conditions and protection are needed for women working in the Free Trade Zone, Middle East and in the plantation sector. As the representation of women in the political system is still very low it may be necessary to encourage the political parties to field more women candidates at elections.
MDG Goal #4 - Reduce child mortality
= Sri Lanka has been successful in reducing child mortality over the last half century. At its current level of 11.3 infant deaths per 1,000 live births, the Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) is lower than that achieved by countries considerably wealthier than Sri Lanka. There have been similar sharp reductions in the under-5 mortality rate and the MDG child mortality targets are well within reach.
= In spite of the overall reduction, there are regional disparities in mortality rates across the country. While infant mortality rates declined in seven provinces during 1991-2003, they increased in the Eastern and North Central provinces during this period largely because of increases in the Batticaloa and Polonnaruwa Districts. The IMR in the North Central Province is almost twice the national average.
Recommendations
The rate of reduction of infant mortality rate has slowed down in recent years and additional efforts will be required to achieve the MDG target of 5.9 deaths per 1,000 live births by 2015 via reductions in neonatal mortality, which is however considerably more difficult and expensive to attain. Most children’s deaths are a result of neonatal causes and communicable diseases, in particular malaria, acute respiratory infections, diarrhoea and epidemics such as dengue fever or meningitis which are not fully covered under vaccinations programmes at present. Data suggest that disparities that exist in child health indicators according to geographic location may be due inadequacy of required health facilities or distance to the available facilities, especially for those living in less developed regions. These are particularly wide across districts and such areas require special targeting.
MDG Goal #5 - Improve maternal health
= Sri Lanka has achieved success in reducing Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR) consistently since the 1940s. MMR is 14 deaths per 100,000 live births in 2003 based on Registrar General’s Department estimate. However, the Family Health Bureau (FHB) of the Ministry of Health has estimated the MMR as 39.3 per 100,000 live births in 2006, based on a special study.
= Either way, the level is the lowest in South Asia. With near-universal access to healthcare, and 98 percent institutional deliveries, the country is on-track to meet the MDG on improving maternal health.
= Although progress has been significant in improving antenatal coverage, contraceptive prevalence rate increased only slightly from 66 percent to 68 percent during 1995-2006. The proportion of women attended by a health professional during childbirth increased from 94.1 percent in 1993 to 98.6 percent in 2006/07 and the percentage increased with their level of education of the mother.
Recommendations
Long-term efforts are needed to strengthen capacities for comprehensive routine reporting of births and deaths. There is an urgent need to strengthen this skills base for all aspects of the health information system. Preventing maternal mortality is one of the central goals of maternal and child health services. It is necessary to improve service delivery for pregnant mothers, especially those in remote villages, plantations, and in the Northern and Eastern provinces, in order to improve their health and well-being.
MDG Goal #6 - Combat HIV/AIDS, Malaria and other diseases
= Sri Lanka is experiencing signs of a low-level truncated HIV/AIDS epidemic, concentrated among sex workers, men who have sex with men, and drug users in potential high transmittance settings. Up to now, a cumulative total of 1,029 people have been detected with HIV infection, though because of the stigma attached to the disease, the number can be higher than reported.
= A total of 266 AIDS cases have been detected in the country. There has been a steady increase in the number of reported cases over the years, in part due to the increase in HIV testing facilities. Until December 2007, 172 people had reportedly died of AIDS.
= More than 60 per cent of the reported HIV infections in 2006 were in the Western province. Apart from the urban areas in Central and North-western Provinces, the Northern and Eastern Provinces fall into high risk areas. Only about one-third of the population aged 15-24 years possess comprehensive knowledge about HIV infection.
= Galle District has the highest percentage (42.6%) of knowledgeable youth while Nuwara Eliya District the lowest (28.2%).
= Even though the spread of the malaria occurs mainly in the dry zone of Sri Lanka, the situation is improving significantly. The use of the bed-nets is widespread, with an average of 62 percent of children below five years of age claiming to sleep under a bed-net. However, there are considerable district-wise disparities in the use of bed-nets.
Recommendations
Though there has been a significant decline in the incidence of Tuberculosis (TB) over the years, Sri Lanka may have to launch special programmes to achieve the target of halving the incidence and death rate due to tuberculosis.
The overall incidence rate of TB was 42 per 100,000 population in 2006 and is much higher in Kandy, Vavuniya, Colombo and Kalutara districts.
Malaria control efforts in Sri Lanka are decentralised and early detection and prompt treatment has become the mainstay of disease control.
The DOTS has been successfully implemented to reduce morbidity and mortality from Tuberculosis.
MDG Goal #7 - Ensure environmental sustainability
• Over the years, there has been a noticeable deterioration of environmental quality in Sri Lanka. The forest cover has continued to decline steadily and in 2005 it covered less than 30 per cent of the total land area.
= The per capita carbon dioxide emissions per year have increased from 0.20 MT to 0.64 MT between 1990 and 2005.
= CFC consumption which had risen to 521 MT in 1995 from 210 MT in 1990 has gradually declined to 62 MT by 2007.
= Nearly 85 percent of households have sustainable access to improved drinking water in 2006/07 compared to 68 percent in 1990. There is considerable variation across sectors and more than 95 percent urban households have access to an improved water source.
= In rural areas this drops to 85 percent, whereas in the Estate sector less than three in five households have similar access.
= According to the surveys conducted by DCS, while more than 90 per cent of urban and rural residents have access to the drinking water source, either within premises or within 200m of the dwelling, only 85 per cent of residents in the Estate sector have similar access. For 4 per cent of the rural residents and 11 per cent of the residents of the Estate sector, the source of drinking water is more than one kilo metre away.
= Sri Lanka has recorded substantial improvements in sanitary conditions in all districts within the past decade and has already achieved the MDG target on access to improved sanitation. In 1990, only 69 per cent of the households had access to improved sanitation. By 2006/07, close to 94 per cent households overall had access to improved sanitation.
= It is estimated that overall, 15 per cent of the Sri Lankan population lives in urban areas (areas under Municipal Councils and Urban Councils), and about 5 per cent of the urban dwellers live in slums or shanties.
= In the densely populated Colombo District, 8 per cent of the urban residents are poorly housed, though there is a dearth of reliable and accurate information on slum dwellers in the country.
Recommendations
The Estate sector needs special attention regarding safe drinking water, as nearly 40 per cent of the households do not have sustainable access to safe drinking water (in 2006/07). It may also be necessary to study the situation in the districts in the Northern Province and the Trincomalee District in the Eastern Province, as national surveys could not cover these districts due to unfavourable ground conditions.
MDG Goal #8 - Develop a Global Partnership for Development
= Sri Lanka’s export share to developed countries reduced from 91.7 per cent in 1992 to 68.7 per cent in 2006 even though developed countries continued to be the major export destinations for Sri Lankan goods.
= Garment exports continue to constitute above 40 per cent of total exports of the country. In recent years, the structure of the ranking order of the countries in respect of external trade has changed significantly and countries like India, Iran, Malaysia etc., have now become prominent trading partners.
= The amount of foreign financing annually committed to Sri Lanka by development partners since 2004 has exceeded US$ one billion in support of post-tsunami rehabilitation and reconstruction as well as in support of new development initiatives of the government under the Mahinda Chintana.
= The total annual foreign financing commitment reached US$ 2069 million in 2008 compared to US$ 899 mn in 2002, also with an increase of export credits.
= There has been an absolute decline in the allocation of aid for agriculture from US $146 mn in 1992 to US $113 mn in 2005 even as total Official Development Assistance (ODA) (multi and bilateral) almost doubled in this period.
= The amount of ODA received by Sri Lanka as a percentage of GNI declined from 5 per cent in 1992 to 3 per cent in 2005, even though aid per capita increased from US $24 to US $36 during this period
= External debt servicing as a percentage of total exports of goods and services was 17.8 per cent in 1990. It has declined to15.0 per cent in 2008. For 2005 it was as low as 7.9 per cent, mainly due to debt relief granted after the Tsunami. Accordingly, the debt service ratio as a percentage to the total export earnings from merchandise and services is showing a favourable trend for this particular reference period and the situation after the Tsunami in 2005 is an exception.